Victoria British Columbia Real Estate Information Archive

So the May numbers are in. 17% decline in number of sales vs same month last year. This on the heal of 22% and 28% declines.

So what does it mean? was last year a special year? is market off? where is it going?

Well first last year was an ok year but not spectacular. It was not the best year Victoria had seen but not the worst but their is a trend.

It amuses me when I see our Real Estate board and so called International Franchises saying that the market is off and there will be less sales, but prices should stay the same or rise? Really? who are you trying to fool? Its economics 101.

Now many in my industry would call me a naysayer but I call it like it is. Also the public is not stupid. They can see if there are less sales, more homes for sale (7% more last month vs May 2010) that the prices will have to drop. Its basic economics that is taught in middle school.

But are price drops a bad thing? Not really. When you look at the prices vs 6 years ago we are still almost double. that is not normal. We have seen huge drop off in USA and other parts of Canada and we should expect a small drop off here. But is that a bad thing? Again, no. Unless you are cashing out to move away then the price you sell and re-buy for are really irrelevant as its just moving dollars. Also if you look at interest rates and payments, even though we have had huge price increases, due to the interest rates, payments are the same or less than they were 5 years ago.

We have a number of reports that show what is selling in each price range in each market. Its important to take a look at each market and price range as a sub-market. The real estate board numbers show averages but each area of the CRD has its own submarket and within that each has its own good and bad things. The averages may show a slow market yet within a neigbourhood or price range its very hot. or very cold. Its important to get all the facts on all you do.

If you wish a Comparative Market Analysis that looks at all the numbers and shows you the information you need to make a decision then please email me or call me at 250-544-2929 and I would be glad to help.

Its with a heavy heart that I write about the passing of a great man and a good friend.

Mel Couvelier who was Mayor of Saanich and then Finance Minister for the province of BC has passed away.

I got to know Mel when I was on Sidney Council from 1985 -1990. I was 22 when elected and met Mel who over the years always had time for me and was always there to offer a guiding hand. As a young politician I did not know what I did not know and Mel always took the time to help give me the full story. He was helpful during the Social Credit Leadership conventions and in giving me advice on council. After he was done with Politics and I was (until 2008) we did not see each other much but when we did he always was there with a handshake and a smile.

Recently I got to spend lots of time with Mel and the committee of folks from the Memorial Park Society as they approached the Peninsula Recreation Commission about a merger. Even at 78 Mel was smart as a whip and calling on his old days as finance minister was pushing for a merger of the two operations. After working and meeting with Mel, I agreed and still do that it would be a huge thing for all things recreation and culture to be under one umbrella, the PRC. He and the board of the Memorial Park Society were so open and honest and real that they were willing to step aside in the interest of better services and better programs for all on the Saanich Peninsula. I would hope that the PRC and the 3 local councils - two of who already want to to the merger- continue in their discussions to show that this in the interest of all.

Up until the end Mel still had the interests of the residents of the Peninsula and all of BC still at heart. He will be missed.

My prayers go out to his family at this time and I believe Mel is in good hands.

To read more from the local newspaper click here.

I was having a talk with a friend today who told me about 4 members of her family that now have or had cancer. A clients wife now has it and good friends of mine in Maryland are fighting it.(check out her story)

I recommend regular check ups. I just had the 3rd anniversary of my dads passing on March 14, 2011.  He was healthy, ran 10k 3 times per week and found out he had cancer at 67 and passed away 3 weeks later. It makes you or in this case me stop and smell the roses and always ask "whats it all about.

And it also reminds me that its time to get another checkup. At 48 its time to make sure i get regular checkups as i lost my dad at 67 years old and my paternal grandfather at 67. Its OK to work hard and play hard but make sure you get a checkup and enjoy every minute of life! I know i am - i am off for a few days to take my granddaughter skiing at Mt. Washington - that's doing whats important.

Oh and I booked appointment with my doctor. have you?

Number one question I get from my clients these days, behind where is market headed? is where are interest rates headed?

Funny thing is they are both linked!! If rates go up, prices fall. When we look at Bank of Canada Rate at 1% and we look at Bank Prime rates of 3% its not hard to see where they are headed? Right now is a great time to buy and lock in with a five year rate. With prices flat and interest rates down its ideal if you are dependant on making payment

For example on a $600,000 house in Greater Victoria (average price last month), payment on a 5 year mortgage with 25% down at 5.19% interest are $2666. If interest rates rise to where they were 10 years ago and the average for last 30 years of 7.95% then the payment would be $3420 per month for a five year mortgage. This requires at huge increase in family income to qualify.

"But Ron, you said rates rise, prices fall."

Ok lets look at this example ; prices drop by 10% due to increase in interest rates.

$600,000 house becomes $540,000, down-payment decreases and at 7.95% the payments on a 25 year mortgage would be $3,078, still $412 more per month than buying at today's price and today's interest rates. To buy at that higher amount and to qualify your income would have to be $14,000+ more than it is at buying at today's price and today's interest rates?

So when folks ask me is it a good time to buy - my question is really at what payment amount do you want to buy? Price not as important we find as payments. If you would like to talk about buying a home or talking to a mortgage professional, let me know and i can make sure to put you in touch with a couple great ones.

Ron

ps. to see a updated list from Bank of Canada on historical rates check out here. Lots of great information out there to help you make your buying or selling decision.

The deadline is approaching for changes in how Canadians get their High ratio mortgage insurance.

CMHC which I believed created our overheated market in early 2000 when they changed rules to allow 40 year amortization and 0$ down has been rapidly pulling back. This has created a stagnant market for gains in the low end as many are unable to qualify with the new rules. and now they change again on March the 18th but what has gone unnoticed by many is the change for April 18, 2011 in the high ratio insurance NO LONGER being available for high ratio lines of Credit. Check out here to get the quick details or here for full information from CMHC.

In a nutshell they are going to maximum 30 year terms for amortization of your mortgage and you need to have more money down now. In addition you need 15% down for investor property high ratio financing. This is going to cause a number of Canadians at the bottom or lower part of the market to disqualify now, due to higher payments and a higher down-payment. This is good and bad. I always thought the 40 year amortization was stupid but it was brought in by a Federal Government, not the one we have now, to artificially help the Real Estate Market. It did but unlike anything they had seen. Prices in Victoria doubled and tripled over the decade as interest rates fell and lower payments brought on bidding wars. As interest rates are still low they have ratcheted down the requirements, which i think is a good thing but should interest rates go up, in markets like Victoria there could be some problems when it comes time to renew or re-qualify.

Its important more than ever to use a professional Realtor to help guide the process and to use a Mortgage professional who has the experience.

We just listed for sale a great little townhouse in Sidney that is definitely better on the inside than out. Having sold homes at 10046 Fifth Street in Sidney before I was very surprised when I walked into this home. It has been fully renovated and updated by the wonderful owner who is moving on. She hired me to find a great buyer for her home that will take care of it as much as she has. Check it out at www.20-10046fifth.com and if you are looking for a starter home or just downsizing then take a look here.

Was invited by my friend Bill Steeper to spend a day with some folks loading a container for the Philippines. I had not heard of this project here in Victoria but there is a great group of people who work with Compassionate Resource Warehouse taking donated supplies and loading a 40ft container to be shipped around the world.

Wow. The first thing i notice in the donated space of the old Fairways store in Colwood is the unbelievable amount of goods, and organized! There is a group of ladies who separate, sort, fold and pack all the clothing, bedding, linens, toys and more into smaller packages that can be loaded. I saw more bikes and wheelchairs than i had seen in a long time.

A list of requests is sent in, the load we packed yesterday was for a Nun in the Phillipines who had requested supplies. Then that is given to one of the controllers because everything that goes in must be documented on a manifest to deal with customs with the country its going into.

Then the packing begins. Working with Bills friend Dave Swan, who at 71 was one of the younger members of the group its time to pack. We start off with a row of desk. We are packing 75 school desks. So the first row is in then its time to fill the spaces. Boxes, mostly shoe boxes that are donated from all the shoe stores in Victoria, are packed with all sorts of goodies by the sorting crew and rolled in on a large rack. we use all sort of different sizes in among the desks. Then its bags of shoes , 1 -2 pair per bag, to fill in the larger holes and finally stuffy's. Stuffy's are small plastic grocery bags with a pair of pants or shirts or socks or some small clothing. All clothing is in boxes or these small bags. They are then packed into every available crack so there is no space! First row of 15 desks, lots of boxes, lots of shoes and hundreds of stuffys. Only 4 more rows to go to get to 75!

Then after the desks its pallets of bedding. When cruise ships are refitted here in Victoria its a double benefit to the local economy. First the work for our awesome shipyard and its employees and secondly they replace ALL the bedding when they do. So its cleaned and donated to the folks at Compassionate Warehouse and loaded into big boxes and onto pallets. We wheel the pallets in and then Dave and I get up on top and start stacking wheelchairs, walkers of all shapes, toilet seat lifts and more. Of course we use lots of boxes and hundreds of stuffy's as doing this.

The group works out of 3 donated warehouses in Victoria and hats off to the landlords who do that. The work is all volunteer. The only cost is to pay for a container rental and shipping. Its about $8,000 per load to deal with all that including customs brokers and more. If you feel that you would like to help out by paying for a full container or donating to one the please go to their website and do so. Also if you want to make a difference, volunteer for a packing day or work at the warehouse sorting. I was sore after trying to keep up with the 71 year old who was like a packer on steroids but I came home at the end of the day and had a smile on my face for having the chance to spend a day with some very great people doing Gods work. You can make a difference around the world by just helping out here at home.

Thanks to Dave and Arnie and Andre and Mel who showed me how to really pack!!! and to all the rest thanks for welcoming me in to work with you! I was truly blessed by being allowed to help!

I just some pictures from friends after recent trip to Macedonia and was reminded about how good we have it in Canada.

Too bad the Opposition critics to our Provincial Government or local government could not spend a day or two in some of the city's I am so blessed to volunteer in. Working alongside people who make $100-200 per day and they are so grateful for any help and to have a job and to have a chance.

I was watching the reaction from the opposition to the Premiers speech last night. Wow could you be any more negative? Yet the Premier admitted he made a mistake in roll out on the HST and offered up some ways to deal with absorbing what I feel is a much more fair tax. Yet the Opposition offered nothing other than criticism. Nothing but point out how he had made mistakes and that they are perfect. We all make mistakes. In fact successful people aren't those who did not make any mistakes, they are the ones who survived them. Its called Failing Forward (great book by John Maxwell)

Its the same on Central Saanich Council. We have a very small very vocal minority in Central Saanich that no matter what we do is opposed. We say white, they say black. They want no growth, no infrastructure repairs or investment, no taxes no nothing. Yet they offer nothing other than to do nothing or spend huge amounts on studies and then blame staff. In talks with the Mayor the other day he pointed out that we had done more as a council to fix things in last 2 years than previous councils in last 20+. In talking with members of the police, works and services and other departments the staff is so happy that this council is actually doing something other than spend money on studies (of course they are overwhelmed by work but they are happy). Yet the opposition is out there making up half truths, whining about we are doing and opposing simple things like providing drinking water and water for fire suppression in a area of the municipality that has been needing it for over 15 years since their wells failed. As the largest tax payer on council, in fact I pay over twice as much in property taxes as the rest combined, I understand the value of a dollar and the value to getting things done in a timely and efficient manner, a business manner. Many in the past did not pay taxes as some on council do not now, and don't understand that a $2500 report is one persons property taxes for the year, a delay of doing something that costs $50,000 is 20 peoples taxes. I got involved to help make a difference and bring some accountability to the taxpayers of Central Saanich. I don't answer to CRD or some unelected vocal minority members. My goal is to do the best for the residents. Do we make mistakes? yep but that's part of being human.

I encourage folks to get involved and if you don't like the way something is done at any level, offer constructive solutions not criticisim. And realize that when you are criticizing that the average person in the world makes less than $2 per day and that maybe its not too bad here in Sunny Central Saanich, in Beutifull BC, in Awesome Canada.

After Macedonia I headed to Budapest to meet some friends who were in town for the World Triathlon Championship (friend Jordon Dagg got 63 out 120 in his division! great job Jordon) and then we headed off to Romania where I go twice per year.

It is great to give back and it was great to share it with my friends, Steven Dagg, Len Wansbrough and Rob Mathews. It was nice to see it through their eyes. Many times I go and do the work and sometimes I wonder if I am making a difference. Seeing them interact at the hospital with the babies and the volunteers I work with at www.firmfoundationsromania.com and www.hftn.ro was awesome. We spent a day in the children's hospital and then my friend Mark Beich took them out to see some of the projects that we have worked on over the years from Farm 11 to the home makeovers in Budilia. Hearing them talk reminded me why I was there.

We headed up to Comanesti to work with the awesome Habitat for Humanity office there which is run by my friends Gabi Pascal and Cristina Nica. They are building with the team, 4 houses on faith! They trusted that God would find the resources so they could build 4 new residences for needy families to move in by Christmas. This was a $80,000 exercise in faith and its safe to say they are almost there!

Working along side canadians who knew building by Canadian standards and then how things are done in Romania I think was an eye opener. It was good for them to see how other countries do the same job we do in Canada. It was also a reminder to me about the market and how its local.

We here daily out of the USA about how bad their market is and the problems with foreclosures and bankruptcy and so on. The government tried to fix it and it did not work so the general impression is that they whole market is in trouble. Yet talking to some friends this week in USA in different areas the Real Estate business for them went from blah to awesome and best year ever.

Its the same in Victoria. You can follow the media and hear about how sales are off 50+ percent. you can read with humor the prediction of Real Estate "experts" and economists about how prices will stay same or rebound while sales are off 50% and its easy to get caught up in the doom and gloom or the very false impressions of certain Real Estate companies and organization press releases.

The fact of the matter is as it is with building techniques in Comanesti Romania and Victoria BC, there is a difference. There is also a differnece in Real Estate in Central Saanich BC and Oak Bay BC. (for the record Central Saanich rocked last month with highest number of residential sales of all but 2 municipalities in Capital Regional District. Must be the great city council .

So the important thing is to deal with facts. Sales are off, inventory is up and prices have softened. Its also important that the Bank of Canada kept their key lending rate at 1% and banks have lowered 5 year money to 3.45%!

So what does it mean? If selling realize its local. The best priced home, in the best condition and well marketed will sell every time. If Buying there are 3200+ single family homes for sale and there is lots of product and some sellers who truly want to sell are lowering prices and polishing up homes and they are selling fast.

And its attitude. if you think you can or you think you can't your right. We are having a good fall and really good October for sales. Why? we think we can.

To see some pictures from the build in Comanesti go here and check them out. Let me know your thoughts on them or my blog and if you ever want to join in on of my trips send me an email. I am always happy to hear from you!

I had the great oppurtunity to head to Macedonia to help out on a Habitat for Humanity build recently.

Wow what a eye opener.

I have been on many trips before but was surprised by some of the things in Macedonia and yet the smiles of the people who have nothing are awesome.

Flew into Skopje Macedonia which is just above Greece but was part of Yugoslavia before the war. The airport was a glorified quonset hut but cool.

Spent a few days in Skopje before heading out to Veles where we worked for full week on some multi- family units for needy familys

The units are all 2-3 bedroom and very basic in layout. The construction was what blew me away as its concrete wall exteriors and concrete supports and floors. The level of construction is designed to withstand major earthquake. In 1963 a earthquake destroyed much of Macedonia and since then their building code is very very strict to withstand another major quake. This has raised the cost of the homes from what they would be but they are still less than $15,000 per home. Many families have 2-3 generations in a 500 sq ft home and this is a chance for folks to start on their own.

I found the economy very distressed in MAcedonia with the average wage between $100 and $150 per month. I was talking with a gentleman who had workers in a clothing company and they paid $100 per month for workers and $300 to the managers. Wow. its hard to believe folks can live on that.

Our hosts were great as usual and Milan Kuzmanov our local Global Village Coordinator was awesome to work with and always in a great mood (except when Slovakia (my grandparents home) and Macedonia played in Soccer(football) and my team won!).

Being able to visit historical site in Stobi was great with a town that was built in 6 BC! and they had Radiant hot water heat in the floor!!

Take a look at the pictures and enjoy some of what I saw!

Special thanks to my friends Sue Adler and Debbie Stevens who donated towards this trip! thank you!